lemons

In today’s world of avocado toast and brunch mimosas, you might think it near impossible to see an avocado producer do poorly in the market. However, that’s the case with Limoneria. The stock is down nearly 14% in after-hours based on missing profits from avocado sales. Calavo Growers ($CVGW) don’t seem to have that problem, with a stock up .05% AH and up 9.3% for the month.

Limoneria blames the heat


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Limoneria is blaming the heat for excessive damage to the avocado quality (that might explain why you have a 3 minute window to get a good avocado). One bright note to the company’s report was that strong lemon and orange sales were strong, and those helped bolster the company so they didn’t get mashed like fresh guac.

The company also narrowed it’s guidance for the full year, putting estimates in the $0.65-$0.70 range vs a high of $0.75 EPS. Not really surprising as the weather cools off, people stay indoors more, and are looking for pumpkin spice, not a fresh brunch with avocados.

Limoneria is the citrus master

Limoneria plans to sell approximately 3.2-3.4 million cases of fresh lemons at a price of $25.50 a carton, and they are forecasting to sell 6.3 million pounds of avocados at an average of $1.04 a pound. To put that in perspective, they are going to sell enough lemons to make 88 million gallons of lemonade, and enough avocados to make 3.15 million pounds of guacamole.

California droughts have impacted citrus prices

Recent California droughts have impacted citrus prices, and sent shares of $LMNR up it’s near 52 week high. This correction could see a fantastic buying opportunity for a stock that has a dividend, and a nearly 20% payout ratio.

Looking at AH trading price of $27.77 on 9/10/18, and the option chain, you can find significant value to be had. Buying 10 call contracts of 15 MAR 2019 $35 CALL at $3.00 an option, your entry price is $3,000. Having the stock hit $34 by 15 DEC 2018 brings you a profit of $1,120, a 37.3% gain on your money.

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