Blackberry thinks they are bold, but you should upgrade your shares

Blackberry today announced a “win” for the company by having the Patent Trial and Appeal Board (PTAB) say that their patents for an industry wide technology standard “won’t face a challenge from Nokia ($NOK).”

Blackberry ($BB) getting a win for the company at this stage of the game is kind of like putting in a full tank of gas after you totaled your car in an accident. Sure it’s nice, but a) it’s not something that will help you now, and b) you could have used that money for a down payment on a new car.

Blackberry traded at a high of $144.56 on 6/16/08, and as of end of trading for 8/13/18, closed at a measly $10.29. While the ruling from the PTAB could be seen as a good thing from Blackberry’s current case in Federal Court where it is seeking royalties, it would be a very interesting cash infusion to a company that that should be sent to the crusher.

Analyzing the stock from past historical performance, a 5 YR EBITDA Discounted Cash Flow model shows the stock hitting a price target of $8.85, representing a 14% downside. Trying to be optimistic and looking at other financial models, the picture gets even worse.

Blackberry is trying to grow its business back to its heyday, but people just aren’t that interested in the company or its phones. The software however, is a slightly different story, as the Blackberry car software is now embedded in 20M cars. That however, we see as not a huge opportunity. As most consumers hold an iPhone or a flavor of Android, they want the cars to talk to the existing phones. Apple’s CarPlay and Android Auto are, and will continue to be, the car OS of choice.

Flick the little trackball as a stress reliever from watching the Blackberry stock implode.

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