Someone is buying Groupon… and they are using a Groupon

The harbinger of the daily deal age has finally become a parody of itself. A deep discount of its former offers and valuations, in fact you can get a once $16 billion dollar company for a whopping 85% off, with $GRPN now being valued at a measly $2.4 billion. Sources are telling Recode (https://www.recode.net/2018/7/7/17532138/groupon-acquisition-buyer-sale) that Groupon is readying itself for buyers, and hopefully they will print out a misaligned printer sheet of paper and walk it into Groupons Chicago based headquarters.

The 52-week trading range is between $3.60-$5.99, and the Friday 7/6/18 close put it at $4.36 a share, over 27% down from its high. Analysts are really not liking it, and expect a lackluster earnings call on August 8th.

What this means for you

A potential buyer or acquisition for Groupon could mean a few things. One, you could see a restructuring of how merchants are paid out and brought into the platform, with a drastic change in revenue (someone buying like Google who can laugh at revenue could see a more merchant focused effort for data gathering), where a suitor like Amazon could be more customer focused and integrate with its new services offerings.

Consumers will most likely see a change in deals and deal structures, and possibly even the loss of the Group-coupon hybrid name, but rest assured, you will most likely be able to get spa days for 80% off.

How you make money

Buy all the things before they get sold! Just kidding. But this is a prime stock to short. Continued revenue decline, consolidation of the two major players (Groupon got LivingSocial), and merchants unhappy with services provided by Groupon, and a MASSIVE revenue cut have lead this once major player to spiral down the discount rabbit hole.

Jumping into the options pool if you want to not take as much risk, 18 JAN 2019 PUT at a $0.09 contract price would cost you $90 buying 10 contracts, and the stock reaching $3 by November 24th would bring a $130 return on your $90 investment ($0.22 sell price), or in %, 144% return.

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